Huntsman - 2010 and 2011 Will Be More Difficult Than 2009

We can expect 2010 and 2011 to be difficult years for commodity chemical producers. That's the view expressed by Peter Huntsman, CEO of Huntsman Corporation in his interview with India's Economic Times.

Huntsman's view is that the emerging superpowers in the chemical industry such as SABIC and Reliance will start to assert themselves in global markets, with the impacts of large scale, state-of-the-art investments imposing themselves on global supply.

This new and high quality supply will make things very tough for the ageing, smaller scale plants in the US and Europe.

Nothing particularly new in this analysis. We are already seeing new plants coming on stream and further investment in capacity such as Borouge 3 in Abu Dhabi. Investment levels are increasing again, and the only thing constraining further Middle Eastern expansion is the increasing tightness of ethane feedstock availability due to the relatively slow exploitation of the gas fields in the region.

Due to what Peter Huntsman saw as an inability to compete, his company moved out of commodity chemicals and into speciality chemicals. Huntsman's current product portfolio is based on technology and innovation, where these factors are more important than price or raw material availability.

His view is about right, we cannot expect major investments in commodity chemical production in Europe and North America, although we can expect some of the current commodity chemical plants to have a reasonable future if they are innovative, flexible and well maintained. However for innovation in speciality chemicals and green technologies, the future can be positive in Europe and North America, as long as governments and industry take care to maintain the infrastructure and skill base.

Is Now the Time to Start Planning New Investments?

photo : Germanhistorydocs

Although contractors are seeing an increase in the number of requests for proposals, the scale of projects is nothing like those seen just a few years ago. Large scale projects are just not being initiated just now, but arguably this may be a very good time to start to invest wisely.

Engineering contractors are seeing changes in demand patterns, as we move into the “new normal”. The scale of projects is nothing like those seen just a few years ago. But arguably next year may be a very good time to invest wisely, now that costs have come down to more sensible levels.

• Current demand for chemicals has been buoyed by the stimulus packages in place around the world.
• As these packages end (e.g. in autos), uncompetitive manufacturing assets will again come under increased pressure
• Cost pressures coming from climate change related legislation will also make things tougher for older and less efficient plants

Supply and demand will start to rebalance to some extent and although this will be offset by the wave of new capacity coming on stream in the Middle East and Asia, some opportunities will be created.

Although there are differing views on the speed and shape of the recovery, we remain in a cycle and the upcycle will come in the next few years. Many analysts are predicting a next peak somewhere around 2013-2014.

The combination of these factors means that any new investment has to be made judiciously and in the right market sectors. Given that new plant takes typically 3-4 years to complete, now is probably the smart time to start selectively investing in new, efficient and 'green' assets.